Salam Volunteer,

GE14 PREDICTION: WHAT THE BIG DATA TELLS US?
Swiss Garden Hotel Kuala Lumpur, Friday 9 March 2018, 830pm
 
The 14th General Election, due to be held in the next 2 to 4 months, is set to be the most defining election in the Malaysian history. Interestingly, while many analyses have given early predictions of the outcome, the difference of each prediction is too great.
 
On the one hand, some analysts predicted a landslide victory for Prime Minister Najib that his Barisan Nasional coalition may regain the customary 2/3rd parliamentary majority lost since 2008.
 
Most analyses chose the easiest way out: a safe prediction that Prime Minister Najib will be returned to power with somewhat a similar margin of majority he currently has.
 
Yet, many observers have slowly and quietly re-calibrated their previous reading of the national opposition coalition’s chance in this general election. A year ago, most analyses were unanimous that Pakatan Harapan has an almost zero chance of winning the federal power.
 
The reason was obvious: with the departure of the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) from the national opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan was facing a serious vote deficit from the largest ethnic group. PAS is set to contest in many of the seats, causing a split in the traditional opposition support base.
 
The situation is not as straight forward now. More and more analysts acknowledge the growing strength of the opposition coalition.
 
What is the reason for the substantial difference from one analysis to another?
 
The answer lies in how Malay voters are expected to vote in the event of nationwide 3-corner fights between Prime Minister Najib’s Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Harapan versus PAS.
Such a situation is unprecedented in the Malaysian history. Therefore, there is absolutely no data or previous election results that can be relied on to predict the outcome of a nationwide 3-corner fights.
 
This is precisely the driving force that led to the founding of INVOKE Malaysia, a big data analytics firm with specialisation on citizens mobilisation solutions.
 
Over the last 18 months, INVOKE has carried out continuous surveys on various issues to collect data that can help us build a profiling model to predict how Malaysians will vote in the event of a nationwide 3-corner fights.
 
INVOKE draws the big data from various sources: census data, party membership data, government aids data, electoral roll, daily surveys conducted from our computerised Call Centre, persuasion data being fed by a team of 20,000 volunteers nationwide who call fence-sitters to gauge voting preference, Facebook data, Twitter data, Instagram data, Youtube data and many others.
 
Since our first nationwide survey in January 2017, INVOKE had been able to obtain randomised and stratified voting preference data from approximately 500,000 voters.
 
This has allowed us to build a predictive model of how each voter will vote in the next general election.
 
INVOKE is holding a closed-door seminar to present our prediction of the outcome of the general election, outlining the following:
 

  1. The expected final tally of the parliamentary seats – a seat by seat breakdown showing which party wins which parliamentary seat
  2. The expected final tally of the states – a state by state breakdown showing which party wins which state governments

 
The seminar will also feature a forum with the following panellists:
 
Dr Rozhan Othman
Senior Research Fellow of INVOKE Centre for Policy Initiatives (I-CPI)
formerly
Professor, Malaysian-Japan International Institute of Technology (MJIIT), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
Professor, University of Brunei Darul Salam
Professor, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM)
Professor, International Islamic University of Malaysia (UIA)
 
James Chai
Research Fellow of INVOKE Centre for Policy Initiatives (I-CPI)
First Class Honours, University of London
MSc Oxford University, columnist at Malaysiakini
 
Liang Jia Hui
Lead Analytics, INVOKE
First Class Honours, Financial Mathematics, Heriot-Watt University
 
Naim Brundage
Head of Digital Marketing, INVOKE
formerly 
J Walter Thompson Worldwide
 
 
We believe the prediction developed using big data analytics will assist your organisation to re-calibrate your expectation of the outcome of the election and subsequently influence your organisation’s risk management in the next 6 months.
 
The seminar will start at 830pm and is expected to take at most 3 hours (including the Q&A with the panellists). Light refreshment will be provided.

Please register here – 
https://volunteer.invokemalaysia.org/events/2918 or 

http://bit.ly/INVOKEGE-14PredictionForum

 

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Kalau anda telah daftar sebagai sukarelawan, boleh tekan butang di bawah untuk mulakan aktiviti phonebank, canvassing atau sertai latihan PACA. Jangan lupa pula untuk update maklumat anda supaya kami dapat padankan anda dengan aktiviti terdekat anda. Mulakan sekarang! 

If you have registered as a volunteer, please press the button below to start doing phonebank, canvassing, and join in PACA trainings. Don’t forget to update us of your latest information so we can match you to the nearest activity. Click the button below! 

Volunteer INVOKE!

Sumbangan anda kepada INVOKE akan membantu pasukan kami untuk merekrut dan melatih sukarelawan. Dana yang dikutip membantu kami untuk membeli prepaid top-up bagi aktiviti phonebank yang seterusnya haha. Tidak kisah lah sumbangan anda kecil atau besar, ia akan membantu kami untuk  berkempen ke arah Malaysia yang baru. Tekan butang di bawah!

Your contribution to INVOKE will help enable our teams to recruit and train volunteers. Funds that are collected will buy us prepaid top-ups for the phonebank activity that happens at INVOKESpace and also all other regional offices! (haha) No matter what your contribution is small or large, it will direct Malaysia to a bettter future. Click the button below! 

Sumbang kepada INVOKE!

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Kalau ada apa-apa masalah, boleh telefon kami di talian 0192765200 atau emel kami di [email protected].

And if you have any problems/questions, please contact us at 0192765200 or email us at [email protected]

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